Beyond the Pews: The Next American God-Quake (Video)

I want to share with you a book I’ve been reading for years: an inquiry into a Nobel Laureate’s examination and prediction of a revival pattern of Spiritual Awakenings in the Western World and a look forward at this Nobel Prize winner’s predictive model for what’s coming in American society in terms of the next great spiritual awakening. Today, we’re looking at something fundamental in American history: the Great Awakenings. These big waves of religious revival arguably changed the country.

[Psa 85:6]  Will you not revive us again, that thy people may rejoice in you?

Let’s take a minute to introduce the late Robert William Fogel. He was a Nobel Prize winner in economics, actually, which makes his take unique. He wrote the book The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism. In this book, written in the ’80s – ’90s, Fogel connects religious movements from the birth of our nation down to the current day. As an economist, Fogel focuses on that characteristic of each revival, from the First Great Awakening looking forward, and the societal ills each movement addressed, not only in the ranks of the Church but in secular circles and politics as well. Out of every identified Great Awakening, there resulted an emphasis on “egalitarianism,” or equality, specifically related to a call to equality of opportunity materially, socially, and, interestingly enough, spiritually—an emphasis in itself that the Church has profoundly struggled with, particularly the “out of church movement” where believers de-emphasize their perceived need for spiritual oversight and go it alone, embracing the “spiritual but not religious” mindset.

Fogel’s book presents a really interesting framework, though people definitely debate parts of it. For myself, with a personal and family history in spiritual things, embracing every spiritual movement back to the birth of Pentecostalism at Azusa Street, Los Angeles, my hope here is to unpack Fogel’s big idea and somehow come to a grasp, as Christian leaders, as to where we’ve been, where we are at, and where we are going. What are these awakenings, according to Fogel? First of all, I am quoting Fogel because, while he didn’t profess a personal religious faith, nevertheless, he accurately and dispassionately identified, better than anything I’ve read in 40 years of studying revival history, a pattern of outpouring, a pattern of spiritual outpouring that I believe accurately predicts what Fogel would call the emerging fourth great awakening of revival and spirituality in our day. Now, the pattern that Fogel espouses—how does this cycle work? Then let’s think about how relevant that might be today, because we’re in this unique moment in history, spiritually speaking, here in the States, aren’t we?

[Psa 33:12 KJV] 12 Blessed [is] the nation whose God [is] the LORD; [and] the people [whom] he hath chosen for his own inheritance.

It is undeniable that traditional church numbers are going down, but maybe, just maybe, there are signs of people searching for something spiritual again, right? Not so much a decline but a shift. God’s people are on the move. They are hungry, dissatisfied; therefore, they have summoned their courage and ventured out of the ranks of organized religion with diverse results, some positive and some negative, because among those who are “spiritual but not religious,” divorce rates, mental disorders such as anxiety and depression, and suicide are much higher than those in organized religion or even among those who have no religious background whatsoever, such as atheists. So let’s look at Fogel’s theory, and consider some other viewpoints too, and just explore these big shifts, past and present. Let’s start with Fogel’s core idea.

Fogel basically sees this cycle of religious awakening (spiritual awakening for the purists out there), a repeating pattern. Writing from the perspective of the 90s looking back, Fogel makes an intuitive leap to identify this ebb and flow of spiritual upswells with major technological advances like the Industrial Revolution, the printed page, radio, television, or the internet. He postulated that these tech advances shake things up in society, pushing people out of what amounted to a Western “caste system” and thereby create crises that Fogel argues get resolved or at least addressed by these religious awakenings, and these awakenings don’t just stay in the church pews, not at all.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Fogel, writing at the apex of the nascent Christian political conservative movement, predicts and identifies the connection between spiritual awakenings and political shifts and even war, such as the Revolutionary War and the Civil War, and what he terms the “culture wars” of the ’80s and ’90s. Fogel thinks that spiritual movements driven by “ecstatic religion,” or religion rooted in experiential, emotionally individual faith in particular, take the lead in responding to these big societal shifts, pushing for new values and driving movements for greater equality. Tech creates a problem; religion helps find a solution, then the politicians get involved and muck up the works, resulting in class struggle, culture wars, and often outright military conflict, on two occasions, global conflict such as WWI and WWII.

[Hos 6:1-2 KJV] 1 Come, and let us return unto the LORD: for he hath torn, and he will heal us; he hath smitten, and he will bind us up. 2 After two days will he revive us: in the third day he will raise us up, and we shall live in his sight.

The societal response to the First and Second Great Awakenings and the Third involved pushing for more equality of different kinds, from personal freedoms, inherent social rights, material opportunity, and spiritual autonomy, as well such as the modern phenomena of the “out of church” demographic. He maps out four distinct cycles in American history. Let’s walk through them.

The first Great Awakening. He puts it roughly in the 1730s to 1760s, but sees this political impact lasting way longer into the 1790s. What defined that one? A weakening of strict Calvinist predestination, with an emphasis on personal, spiritual rebirth. You saw those big revival meetings starting out, like George Whitefield and Jonathan Edwards. One feature of these awakenings was organized benevolence, people trying to do good works, and the equality connection. These would include the Salvation Army, temperance movements, suffrage movements, or perhaps the underlying influence of more current phenomena, such, such as the Me Too movement, though it wouldn’t be perceived as inherently spiritual or religious. How did that play out politically? Fogel connects the First Great Awakening to the American Revolution. He argues it fostered an anti-authoritarian spirit, this questioning of established hierarchies, which fed into challenging British rule and its perceived corruption. Maybe more directly linked to a great leveling of society, materially and spiritually, it boosted the belief in equality of opportunity. The idea that your birth shouldn’t determine your fate. You could rise through merit, through your own efforts. That sounds very American, doesn’t it? It should, because it fueled the Revolutionary War.

The Second Great Awakening, which roughly spanned from 1800 to 1840, and had political effects up to the 1870s. Different from the first, more intense in some ways, and socially, it set the stage for the Civil War. A stronger belief that everyone could achieve salvation, but it involved a real struggle against sin, both your own personal sin and the sins you saw in society. This is the era of big camp meetings, lots of emotion, huge fervent revivals, massive upsurge in benevolence, focus on end times, and building a better society now. And the egalitarian push here, calling for fairness and justice in society, Fogel links this one very strongly to the big single-issue reform movements. Again, think abolitionism, the fight against slavery, and temperance, tackling specific social evils. He argues this energy ultimately contributed to the Civil War and that the ongoing struggle was for, again, equality of opportunity.

[Deu 10:18 AMP] 18 “He executes justice for the orphan and the widow, and shows His love for the stranger (resident alien, foreigner) by giving him food and clothing.

Moving chronologically, now what about the third Great Awakening? When was that? This one is a bit more challenging to identify, but stick with me. Fogel places this from about 1890 to the 1930s but sees its political impact lasting into the 1970s. This one feels different, less about personal sin. A key shift: the focus moves from personal sin to social sin. A growing belief that problems like poverty weren’t just individual failings but systemic issues, such as human trafficking, etc. You also see a move towards a more secular interpretation of the Bible. So the goal for equality shifts; it’s not just opportunity (as in the first great awakening), but in this awakening, more of a reform of existing and ostensibly corrupt institutions in society at the turn of the last century.

Fogel argues this third awakening fueled attacks on the corruption of big business—the robber barons, the rise of Industrial America and its resulting ills and injustices. He connects it to the Civil Rights Movement, the women’s rights movement, and others. The type of equality being sought, he says, was more about equality of condition. The first awakening focused on equality of opportunity, giving birth to America as a nation, and the Second Great Awakening, equality of personal rights, giving rise to the Civil War, and in the early 1900s, equality of shared resources, faith, and social possibilities, which gave rise to integration and tearing down walls of racial and gender-based exclusion. The spiritual movements of the time articulated the unfairness and sinfulness of society in these areas, and ultimately, the government adopted the policy that should actively intervene to level the playing field with varied results—things like minimum wages, social safety nets, trying to reduce disparities in outcomes, not just starting points. That’s a significant shift, which brings us to the fourth great awakening. The one Fogel believed was happening well, “now-ish”.

[Zec 10:1 KJV] 1 Ask ye of the LORD rain in the time of the latter rain; [so] the LORD shall make bright clouds, and give them showers of rain, to every one grass in the field.

He dates its beginning to the 1960s and says it’s still ongoing, with the main political effects kicking in from the 1990s. This is where his analysis gets contemporary and maybe more controversial. What does he see as the hallmarks of this current awakening? He talks about a return to “crisis” or experience, emotion-driven religious expression. What Fogel means here is religion that emphasizes personal experience, emotion, the felt presence of God rather than just doctrine or intellect. Less theological debate, more personal connection. He points to the massive growth of what he calls enthusiastic religions: fundamentalist, Pentecostal, Charismatic Protestants, but also born-again Catholics, who emphasize personal experience. Okay, and what else? A reassertion of personal sin, individual responsibility, self-discipline, hard work, family values, and the political side.

What’s the egalitarian goal this time? According to Fogel, this is interesting. He sees political expressions attacking materialist corruption, meaning greed, consumerism, things like that. But politically, it manifests in the rise of the pro-life movement, pro-family movements, pushes for value-based education, the tax revolt, often associated with the conservative side, and attacks on government entitlement. Fogel interprets this as a return to equality of opportunity rather than equality of condition, a focus on individual effort and responsibility.

This is where his concept of spiritual egalitarianism (that would be a “fair playing field” for all, regardless) comes in. Let’s spend some time on that because it seems key to his argument about this fourth awakening. Fogel makes this crucial distinction. He says, okay, we’ve mostly talked about material equality, fair distribution of wealth and income resources, but he argues there’s this other kind: spiritual egalitarianism, which isn’t about money or stuff. It’s about the fair distribution of spiritual resources, like a sense of purpose and meaning, inclusive of a vision of opportunity for yourself, self-esteem, self-discipline, and even a thirst for knowledge. These internal qualities allow people to flourish. So it’s about equipping people internally, not just externally. He argues that while the first three awakenings were primarily battling over material equality, this fourth awakening is different.

[Jhn 8:36 KJV] 36 If the Son therefore shall make you free, ye shall be free indeed.

It shifted the focus to equality in matters of the mind and spirit, and the leaders of this awakening, in his view, are trying to spread these spiritual resources. He sees them as prioritizing the redistribution of these intangible assets to help individuals achieve self-actualization, to fulfill their potential. He identified about 15 of them. We mentioned a sense of purpose, the vision of opportunity, and self-esteem. Others include a strong family ethic, a sense of community and ethic of benevolence, a work ethic.

It’s a broad list. It covers quite a lot of ground, from personal discipline to community connection. It’s quite encompassing. So Fogel sees this fourth awakening starting around 1960. What kicked it off, in his view? The Charismatic movement and successive movements, such as Brownville, etc., which fostered in society a reaction against rising materialism, hedonism, and self-indulgence in culture. He sees experiential, “New Birth” personal Christianity as the main engine driving this awakening forward, promoting these values: piety, personal responsibility, work, and family. Okay, and then the political arm, the religious right, gets involved later.

Fogel connects the rise of the Christian conservative right, starting around the 1990s, as the political manifestation of this steeper spiritual shift. There were agenda items: opposing abortion, resisting gay marriage legalization at the time, concerns about sexual debauchery, substance abuse, greed. These are expressions of renewed focus on personal sin and self-discipline. That’s how Fogel interprets it. Along with this, there was a pushback among conservative Christians against high taxes and government welfare programs, which Fogel links to that emphasis on individual responsibility and equality of opportunity. He also connects it to some broader social movements that aren’t explicitly religious—things like anti-smoking campaigns, pushes against violence in media, even the movement against sexual harassment. He sees these as also being related somehow to this underlying shift in values towards discipline and responsibility. Historians debate this stuff all the time. Some argue, for instance, that if there was a fourth awakening starting in the sixties and seventies, maybe it was rooted more in the counterculture itself, the interest in Eastern religions, new age spirituality, that kind of personal exploration.

[Jhn 2:15-17 KJV] 15 And when he had made a scourge of small cords, he drove them all out of the temple, and the sheep, and the oxen; and poured out the changers’ money, and overthrew the tables; 16 And said unto them that sold doves, Take these things hence; make not my Father’s house an house of merchandise. 17 And his disciples remembered that it was written, The zeal of thine house hath eaten me up.

Moving forward. Fogel gives us a strong, if debated, framework. Let’s pivot to the present. What are the big trends in American religion right now? It feels complicated. On one hand, you have clear signs of decline in traditional religious practice in conservative Christianity. Church membership is down across many denominations, fewer people identifying as Christian overall, while at the same time, Gen Z and Gen Y demographics are fueling an upsurge of growth even in the Catholic church, a move away from strictly Evangelical social values.

The percentage of American adults who call themselves Christian, however, has been dropping. And you see a rise in people with no particular religious affiliation. They don’t identify with any religion. Even among those who do identify, regular church attendance seems to be decreasing as well. Some surveys, however, show increased interest in Jesus Christ, a growing commitment to prayer, and a feeling that they want more spiritual depth. It’s not always translating into joining a traditional church. We saw that flashpoint at Asbury University, in recent times, didn’t we? It seemed to tap into something among college kids that fostered among them the embrace of spontaneous revival as the engine for personal renewal.

Especially resonant with young people, Fogel sees the “fourth awakening” as focusing (from his ’80-90s perspective, he’s predicting now) on things like mental health struggles, trauma, disillusionment with the modern world—a real hunger for connection and meaning. So, if we think back to the historical awakenings, that upsurge in enthusiasm, personal conversions, social reform, and emotional preaching, how does that compare to now? The historical moves of God had clear spiritual fervor, a focus on getting saved, and spun off major social movements—abolition, temperance, women’s rights—resulting often in intense focus on social justice issues, drawing a parallel to past religious movements.

Now, if Fogel’s predictive model is correct and another actual religious great awakening were to happen within Christianity, what might it look like? Some people look at Fogel’s cycles or historical patterns and predict. Others argue a new awakening, the third or fifth, has already started. They might point to increases in prayer movements, global evangelism efforts, and attempts at Christian Unity. Could a future awakening be driven by Christians focusing on social justice and environmental issues? It feels like the decline in traditional membership might not be so much a decline of spiritual interest in America but rather just a shift, not necessarily less spirituality, but spirituality expressed differently.

People might be finding or seeking meaning in ways that don’t involve signing up for a specific church or denomination—online communities, small groups, individual practices. So, thinking about Fogel’s framework again, how does it help us understand this current moment with all its contradictions? Does his cycle idea suggest this decline is just the trough before the next wave? It could be interpreted that way. Certainly, his model includes periods of disruption before renewal. And his emphasis on technology is potent now, isn’t it? Absolutely. The digital age, AI, and social media are fundamentally changing how people connect, form communities, and share beliefs.

That feels like the kind of technological disruption Fogel talked about as part of and predictive of previous Great Awakenings. It’s transforming the religious landscape in ways we’re still figuring out. What about his core idea of spiritual egalitarianism, or shall we call it the “Great Leveling” of society? If there is a new Awakening brewing, would it be focused on distributing those spiritual resources he talked about? You could argue that a focus on mental health, wellbeing, and finding purpose, which seems prominent in some of the trends we discussed, fits well with Fogel’s idea of distributing non-material resources for human flourishing. But what if the focus is more on social justice and systemic change? In the political realm, incumbency is where politicians make their exit more often, as people are looking for reformers rather than those who seek to maintain the status quo on the left and the right.

A fourth awakening, emphasizing personal sin and conservative values, then would perhaps currently be overlaid by a social justice-oriented awakening that might align more with the goals of his third awakening, equality of condition, but perhaps use different language and be driven by different theological or philosophical bases. Maybe a future awakening wouldn’t look like Fogel’s model, less tied to established churches, more decentralized from the “reformer” religions to no religion at all, and interestingly enough, a strong upsurge in return to the liturgical churches, such as the Catholic Church. The driving concerns could be different. Fogel’s analysis of the Fourth Awakening was rooted in the culture wars of the late 20th century.

[Pro 22:28 KJV] 28 Remove not the ancient landmark, which thy fathers have set.

The issues animating people now might be shifting, and his focus on a narrow view of evangelicalism might miss other significant parts of the picture. We see growth in non-denominational churches, the influence of progressive Christian voices, and the rise of the spiritual but not religious category. Fogel’s lens might be too narrow for all of that, but maybe that concept of spiritual egalitarianism itself, the idea of seeking equality and wellbeing, purpose, community—maybe that still has value, even if we detach it from Fogel’s specific historical analysis. I think it could. It provides a language for talking about the non-material goals of various movements, religious or secular, focused on social justice or personal growth.

What does it mean to help everyone achieve a sense of purpose or belonging? That’s a powerful question. Okay, so wrapping this up, Fogel’s “Fourth Great Awakening” framework (or fifth?), It’s definitely a valuable way to look back and see patterns linking religion, society, and equality, as well as what’s happening right now in the spiritual landscape of America. The current romance of the Christian right with the political realm may be a predictor of a coming disillusionment with the same and the explosive emergence of the next Great Awakening espousing a radical spiritual emphasis and expression to the exclusion of the seduction of the political and all the promises it makes but never seems to deliver on long term. This would be akin to the reactionary response the Church had after Constantine issued the Edict of Milan, codifying the existence of the church and state. Persecution lifted, the Church drifted into moral decay, and the response was the rise of Monasticism and the fourth and fifth century desert fathers. Perhaps a new monasticism will come on the scene, or perhaps the driving force of the same influence will be a mass abandonment of the reform religions and protestantism and a return to Catholicism itself. 

[Psa 68:6 KJV] 6 God setteth the solitary in families: he bringeth out those which are bound with chains: but the rebellious dwell in a dry [land].

This is a fascinating deep dive into Robert Fogel’s framework of the Great Awakenings and its potential relevance for Bible-believing Christians today. Fogel’s Nobel Prize-winning perspective as an economist offers a unique lens through which to understand the cyclical nature of spiritual revivals and their impact on American society, particularly concerning the pursuit of egalitarianism.

Review and Reflection for Bible-Believing Christians:

Fogel’s analysis, while from a secular perspective, presents a compelling historical pattern that resonates with the biblical understanding of God’s Spirit moving through societies to bring about renewal and transformation. His identification of these “awakenings” as responses to societal shifts and technological advancements offers a framework for understanding the ebb and flow of religious fervor and its connection to broader cultural and political changes.